Summary of Research Project Results under JSPS FY2001
"Research for the Future Program"

1.Research Institution The University of Tokyo
2.Research Area Integrated Fields
3.Research Field Causes and Effects of Environmental Loading and its Reduction
4.Term of Project FY 1997 〜 FY 2001
5.Project Number 97I00503
6.Title of Project A Systematic Study on the Environmental Assessment and Possible Mitigation Schemes for Temporal and Spatial Changes in Global Hydrologic and Biogeochemical Balances by Authropogenic Activities

7.Project Leader
Name Institution,Department Title of Position
Katumi Musiake The University of Tokyo, Institute of Industrial Science Professor

8.Core Members

Names Institution,Department Title of Position
Ryosuke Shibasaki The University of Tokyo, Institute of Industrial Science Professor
Taikan Oki The University of Tokyo, Institute of Industrial Science Associate Professor
Masaru Kituregawa The University of Tokyo, Institute of Industrial Science Professor

9.Summary of Research Results

Due to the possible increase of population and related environmental changes, the most necessary resources for human beings -crops and water- will become scarce resources in the world in the future or probably already now. Using various kinds of global datasets including remotely sensed data from space and with the utilization and development of sophisticated global-scale hydrological models, biogeochemistry models and crop production models, the assessments of crop production and water resources over the world on fine grid resolution basis were carried out in order to assess potential human sustainability with adequate amounts of such indispensable resources. For the purposes above, global-GIS techniques and super large-scale detabase systems were developed. In addition, a very advanced user interface was developed which enables us to handle huge datasets of global environment. The visualization technology of it with VRML provides us the first opportunity for feeling of 3D global environment. Since water resources cannot be traded basically, severe situations in the current world and in the projected future worlds may be captured easily in terms of water resources scarcity. Actually as a result of the research, the water scarcity already exists in several notorious basins such as Yellow River, Indus, the western coast of America and so on to considerably severe extent. Water scarcity areas are expected to enlarge around such current scarce areas in the near future. Such projections were carried out with the extrapolations of statistical data on waters and crops and scenarios. However, thinking that every situation - population, land use, climate, society structures, human behaviors and so on - will change in the coming few decades, more dynamic model which will be developed combining these models developed in this research project should be indispensable. Even though the assessed results by this project is plausible as first approximation of the future world, development of such dynamic combined model and assessment of the world using it could be a promising challenge of research in the next few years. We already have started the challenge.

10.Key Words

(1)Environmental Change、(2)Climatic Change、(3)GIS
(4)Remote Sensing、(5)Information Technology、(6)Visualization