平成17年度日本学術振興会アジア学術セミナー実施成果報告書〈概要〉

平成17年11月15日

JASS’05-アジアにおけるプレート沈み込み帯における巨大地震発生過程の解明

1. 委託事業・セミナー名

2. セミナーの目的

2004年12月26日スマトラ西部沖を震源とする巨大地震が発生し，その津波はスマトラからベンガル湾沿岸の国々を襲い，20万に達する犠牲者となった．この地震はインド・オーストラリアプレートの沈み込み帯で一気に1000kmが破壊したことによる．いかに破壊が伝播していったのか，地震学にとり，まだまだ未解明な部分が多いことを痛切に教える地震だった．
一方，最近のGPS 観測や稠密な地震観測網の成果から，プレート沈み込み帯における巨大地震の発生準備過程のイメージが大きく変貌しようとしている．いままでの狭義の地震観測では検出できなかったゆっくり滑りや余効変動が相次いで観測されている．本講義では，フィリピン海プレートのみならず，世界の沈み込み帯におけるこれらの最新のスロースリップイベントや低周波微動，余効変動などに関する観測事例，モデルについて，今回のスマトラ巨大地震の発生過程と交えて，講義と議論を行う．この講義と議論から，アジアにおけるプレート沈み込み帯における巨大地震発生過程を考察する．
西南日本も南に位置する南海トラフでの大地震に襲われている．とりわけ紀伊半島南部では津波被害を数多く被っている．和歌山県広川町では住民を津波から救った話しが伝承され，小泉八雲により世界に紹介されている．そこで，和歌山県広川町や三重県尾鷲市を訪れ，先人達の津波との教訓を学ぶ．更に，日本が誇る観測網を運営している気象庁と国土地理院を訪問し，地震観測やGPS観測の意義と成果に触れる．

3. 開催期間

平成　17　年　9月26日 ～ 平成　17年　10月　5日　10日間

4. 開催地（会場）

名古屋市（名古屋大学　主として野依記念館）

5. 開催責任者

所属機関・職・氏名　名古屋大学　助教授　木股文昭

連絡担当者

所属機関・職・氏名　名古屋大学環境学研究科・地球水循環研究センター庶務掛　台信尚子

6. 参加者数

7. 本セミナーで得られた成果（学問的な観点、国際交流及び若手研究者育成の観点からの成果について記入して下さい。）

本セミナーにはインドネシア，フィリピン，中国，韓国，台湾，タイ，とアジアのプレート沈み込み帯に位置するほとんどの国から若手の研究者と院生が参加し，名古屋大学における4日間の講義，紀伊半島における津波防災の2日間の見学と気象庁などの日本の地震津波火山活動のモニターの2日間の見学と非常に充実した研修となった．以下に特徴的な成果について記す．

1) プレート沈み込み帯における巨大地震発生のメカニズムの理解
参加者の半分は，きちんとした地震学の講義を受けていなかった．そもそもインドネシアやフィリピンですら地震学の講座が大学に存在しないのが現実である．ゆえに，安藤やWangによる基礎的な講義などから，初めてプレートテクトニクスを系統的に学ぶ機会となった．

2) 2004年スマトラ地震や東海のスロースリップイベントといったトピック的な研究の理解
2001年から観測されている東海地域のスロースリップイベント，そして超巨大地震に成長した2004年スマトラ地震と既存のプレート沈み込み運動では理解しがたい現象が昨今続く．スマトラ地震にしてもスロースリップイベントにしても，その分野のトップクラスの研究者による講義は非常に興味のあるものであり，質問が続出した．インドネシアでもフィリピンでもまだ観測されていないスロースリップながらも，参加者は必ず存在し，近い将来に観測したいという期待を話していた．

3) 紀伊半島における津波防災の現状の理解
セミナーでは，旧紀勢町の錦，尾鷲市，和歌山県広川町を訪れ，それぞれの自治体における津波防災対策を見学した．錦では津波タワーに登り，2004年秋の紀伊半島沖地震で実際の避難行動に町民の80％が参加した実録を神妙に聞いた．また，和歌山県広川町では，先年に築かれた防波堤に座り，「稲むらの火」についてその背景から現実を現地のガイドと広川町出身の地震学者津村建四朗さんから聞く機会に恵まれた．このような話しが伝承されることについて，とりわけ，2004年スマトラ地震の被災国であるインドネシアからの参加者は真剣に聞き入った．

4) 気象庁など日本が誇る先端モニターシステムの理解
気象庁では地震モニター室に入り，刻々と報道される日本列島での地震発生を聞きながら，システムの説明を受けた．途中で震度3程度の地震も発生し，モニター室の緊迫溢れるムードに参加者一同が感銘していた．インドネシアなどでは，口先では津波早期警報システムの導入などが唱えられているが，気象庁でのあの真剣な動きはとても自国では感じられるものでなかったと考える．

5) 「稲むらの火」の翻訳活動
セミナーのフィールドトリップで訪れた和歌山県広川町，「稲むらの火」のモデル地を訪れ，「稲むらの火」を現地のガイドの人から説明を受ける．6ヶ国もの参加者ゆえに，それぞれの言語に「稲むらの火」を翻訳したらという問題提起が出され，満場一致で翻訳作業に取りかかった．その結果，インドネシア語，フィリピン（タガログ）語，ロシア語，中国語，そして地方語であるブギニズ（インドネシアの南スラベシ）とビサナ語（フィリピンのミンダナオ島）への翻訳が現在までに実現し，Website*で公開している．これは「稲むらの火」のホームページからもリンクが予定されている．*:http://members8.tsukaeru.net/kimata/inamura.htm

6) 参加者のプレゼンテーションの機会を設けることによる研修生同士のふれあい
僅か10分ながらも研修生の現在の研究に関する口頭プレゼンテーションをもち，ポスター発表も行った．このことにより研修生が現在の研究について議論する雰囲気が急速に形成されていった．

■アンケート結果[PDF]

Date November 15, 2005

Report for JSPS Asian Science Seminar 2005

1. Title of Seminar

JASS' 05-Research of great earthquake occurrence process in the plate subduction zones in Asia

2. Purpose of Seminar

In plate subduction zones of Asia, the giant earthquake such as the 2004 Sumatra-Anderman Earthquake occurs frequently, and a large sacrifice has been brought.　The understanding of the earthquake occurrence process is important also for reducing the disaster by earthquakes and tsunamis. In this seminar, the lecturers were invited from in and out of Japan, and they had lectures of general understanding of the plate subduction, large earthquake occurrence process such as 2005 Sumatra-Anderman Earthquake, and slow slip events observed such as in the Tokai region. Afterwards, students including some lectures were visiting the cities in Kii Peninsula to study the tsunami disaster prevention system. In addition, the Meteorological Agency, Geographical Survey Institute, and National Research Institute for Disaster Prevention are visited to understand the earthquake monitor system in Japan.

3. Period

From September 26, 2005 through October 5, 2005 (10 days)

4. Program: Agenda, topics, related activities (e.g., reception, excursion)

5. Venue

Nagoya City (Noyori conference Hall, Nagoya University) for lecture
Nishiki, Daiki-shi, Owase-shi, and Hirokawa-mura for excursion
Tokyo and Tsukuba-shi for excurtion

6. Organizer

Name in fullFumiaki KIMATA
Affiliation and positionGraduate school of Environmental Studies, Nagoya University, Associate Professor

7. Lecturers and Participants

1) Number of Persons

2) Lecturers

A.Please describe rationale for selecting lecturers, and the need for and role of their lectures in the seminar.
Selecting specialty researchers of the plate subduction, large earthquake occurrence process, and slow slip events from the world. Specialists for tsunami disaster prevention in the field of Kii Peninsular.

B.List

3) Participants

A.Please describe how you recruited participants and why they were selected.
(1) Selecting the young researchers and the graduate students who are participating in the research of the earthquake, the tsunami, and the volcano in Asian countries where it locate along the plate subduction area, and the disaster by the giant earthquakes had been experienced.
(2) Selecting the international students about the seismology, tsunami, and volcanology in Japan from the above-mentioned countries in Asia.
(3) Students from China, Taiwan, and South Korea are considering acquaintance's researcher's recommendation.

B.List

8. Achievements

1) Upon what concept was the seminar planned and organized? (As reference, attach lecture summaries and other related documents.)
After the 2004 Sumatra-Anderman Earthquake, constructions of Tsunami early warning system are proposed to Asian countries as international aid by countries including Japan. However, understanding concerning the earthquake, the tsunami, and the volcano is not high at all as the course of seismology doesn't exist in the university in a lot of countries of Asia. We have joint researches of the seismology etc with countries of Asia, as the international collaborations. This Asian Academic Seminar worked partially of this policy.

2) What results were achieved from an academic viewpoint? Please list them concretely.
i) Understanding the process of the plate subduction, large earthquake occurrence process and slow slip events along the plate subduction zones.
ii) Understanding of the tsunami disaster mitigation in Kii Peninsula of Japan, and "Inamura no Hi" as the topic episode of the tsunami disaster. Especially, we understand the success story of tsunami disaster at Nishiki-town at the Kii-hanto-oki Earthquake of 2004.
iii) Understanding the real time monitor of the earthquake occurrence at Japan Metrological Agency. It is one good example "Tsunami early worming system" is exercised under the manual monitor.

3) What results were achieved in terms of international exchange and young researcher development?
We already conclude MOU (memorandum of understanding ) between Universities about the academic exchange and the student exchange with Syiah Kuala University and Institute Technology Bandung, Indonesia. In addition, MOU between Universities is advanced by the end of current year aiming with Philippine University. The preparations have advanced more concretely through the Banda Aceh in this November. In addition, it is admitted that the group training course by JICA that had been applied since last year is accepted, and six trainees will learn for nine months in the graduate school of environment studies, Nagoya University from the Asian countries in fiscal year 2006. These seminar participants are trainee's powerful candidate.

9. What sort of specific activities may be expected of the seminar participants in the future?

At first, we must report the translation of the story of "Inamura no Hi" to the seven languages of English, Russia, Indonesia, Philippine, Chinese, Buginese of South Sulawesi, Indonesia, and Visana of Mindanao, Philippine by the students of the seminar. (see http://members8.tsukaeru.net/kimata/inamura.htm) The homepage manager of "Inamura no Hi" is sending hope that he wants to link translated each language versions this time. Therefore, it is expected that "Inamura no Hi" that the seminar participant made is introduced to the world.
The result of this seminar achieves an effect surely as not only the translation activity but also the negotiation starts in addition like publishing "Inamura no Hi" in the local newspaper in Indonesia, and "Inamura no Hi" is introduced in the lecture meeting of disaster prevention in the Philippines.

10. Were the system and method of operating the seminar effective? Please note any specific suggestions your have for improving them?

We planned not only the lecture but also field trip with staying in this seminar. In our experience of this time, this Field trip was very useful for the exchange between the participation students. As the students stayed the same hotel with meal, they can exchange the discussion about their research. It did not achieve it in unpreparedness this time. However, it is convinced that the lectures are distributed enough as one text book of geodynamics.
The participants planned the poster presentation and the discussion of their current researches at the first day of the seminar because they had already presentations at the international meetings. These presentations and discussions were very effective to discuss the problem of their research. Lecturers also suggested the students.

11. Please describe any other effects of the seminar that deserve special mention.

We understand this academic seminar is very important to develop the research in Asia. To get more effective result through the seminar, we would like you to improve the following respect as a candidate who can invite it as a student.
1) Including the students from Far Eastern Russia.
2) Expanding the students from the student of the postgraduate course for a doctorate to master's course. Because there are not so many courses of doctor degree in Asia.

<Impressions of Participants>

12. What sort of impressions or opinions was expressed by the lecturers?

Unfortunately, we understand the level of the research of seismology, tsunami and volcanology are different with between Asian countries. It is very difficult to have the lectures wit the same research level, but we felt the heat to their research in the students. One of the heat supported a prompt translation activity of "Inamura no Hi". We convinced that this zeal and the understanding by this seminar support the improvement of the seismology of Asia in the future.

13. What results did you obtain by the questionnaire?

We did a few failures to the preparation for the seminar. For instance, we should move the hall only for one day in the seminar. However, the answer of strongly agree or agree excluded one answer exceeded 80% by the questionnaire. As a result, we are honored. Only, the answer that strongly agree and agree do not come up to 70% is to concern the language. Participants of 30 % feel language barriers between lecturers. However, we believe that this problem will be improved in the near feature.

<Views and Comments on Program>

14. Please give us your comments and opinions on the seminar program itself. What did you think of JSPS's application recruitment period, timing of the selection notice, seminar funding by JSPS, method of seminar operation, or other elements of the program? Do you have any specific suggestions as to how any of these components can be improved?

Thorough the Asian academic seminar in Nagoya University, we have come to the conclusion that the seminar is a very great meeting to understand the large earthquake occurrence in the plate subduction area for the Asian young scientists and students. Some participants inform us that Asian Academic Seminar should be repeated every year. We also have a strong desire to have Asian Academic Seminar about the large earthquake in plate subduction zone again in near feature in Nagoya University.
To get more effort of the seminar we have some comments on the seminar. One is extending the object country to around Asian, such as Far East of Russian. Really Russian locates in Europe, but Far East Russian, such as Kamchatka and Sakhalin should be in Asian. Another is extending the participants to the students in master degree. Because there are not too a lot of students who are on the register in the doctor's course at the university in Asia.
We also hope to have a holiday in the seminar. In our plan, we have four-day-lectures, two-day-field trip, and two-day-visiting to the institute. We are afraid it was tight time table for the participants and no time to enjoy Japanese culture for the participants.